THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NCAA TOURNAMENT
Morehead State (19-15, 18-12 ATS) vs. Alabama State (22-9, 1-0 ATS)
(at Dayton, Ohio)
Alabama State won the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament championship by rallying past Jackson State 65-58 on Saturday, cashing as a 3½-point favorite in its only lined game of the season. The Hornets are back in the Big Dance for the third time in school history and the first time since 2004.
Morehead State closed the regular season with four straight losses, including three by a total of 12 points. However, the Eagles swept through the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, capped by a thrilling 67-65 double-overtime win over Austin Peay as a one-point underdog in the championship game March 7. That victory put Morehead State back in the Tournament for the first time since 1984.
Alabama State enters the Tournament on a four-game winning streak, and since opening the season 2-7, they’re on a 20-2 run. However, the last team from the SWAC to win a Tournament game was Alcorn State, which beat South Alabama in 1980. Although the Hornets played just one lined game this season, they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the board, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in non-conference play and 4-1 ATS at neutral sites.
Morehead State cashed in all three games of the Ohio Valley tournament and is on an 11-2 ATS run, including 5-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-0 ATS when laying less than seven points. Also, the Eagles have also cashed in 16 of their last 21 against teams with a winning record, but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven on Tuesday and 5-25-4 ATS in their last 34 lined non-conference games.
The underdog is 5-3 ATS since the inception of the “play-in” game.
The over is 5-2 in Alabama State’s last seven neutral-site contests, but the Eagles are on “under” streaks of 3-1 overall, 5-2 after a SU win and 9-4 after a spread-cover.
Tonight’s winner stays in Dayton, Ohio, and faces No. 1 overall seed Louisville in Friday’s opening-round Midwest Regional action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NIT
Davidson (26-7, 12-16-2 ATS) at South Carolina (21-9, 10-13-2 ATS)
One year after advancing all the way to the Elite Eight, Stephen Curry and Davidson were relegated to the NIT after losing to the College of Charleston 59-52 as a 9½-point favorite in the semifinals of the Southern Conference tournament back on March 8. That loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Wildcats, who enter the postseason in a 2-7-2 ATS slump. Davidson, which had made three straight trips to the Big Dance, is in the NIT for the first time since 2005.
South Carolina started the season 16-4, but split its final 10 games – all in SEC action – going 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine. The Gamecocks went one-and-done in the SEC tournament, losing to eventual champion Mississippi State 82-68 as a 2½-point favorite Friday. They struggled defensively down the stretch, allowing 73 points or more in six of their final eight contests.
Curry, who scored 20 of his team’s 52 points in the loss to Charleston, averages 28.4 ppg on the season on 45.6 percent shooting, he’s scored at least 20 in all but three games this year, including the last 17 in a row. Behind the sharpshooter’s stellar play, the Wildcats went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance last year.
The Gamecocks are back in the postseason for the first time since winning back-to-back NIT championships in 2005 and 2006, as they went 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS along the way, including 3-0 at home (2-1 ATS). South Carolina has cashed in seven consecutive NIT contests.
In addition to their current 2-6-1 ATS drought, the Gamecocks are mired in pointspread funks of 7-19-1 at home, 3-8 in non-conference play, 1-4 against the Southern Conference and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Davidson is on positive ATS streaks of 35-16-1 on the road, 11-4 in non-conference action, 10-4-1 in postseason tournament games, 13-3 as an underdog, 7-1 as a road pup, 7-1 on Tuesday and 54-20-3 after a non-cover.
For the Wildcats, the under is on stretches of 5-1 against non-league opponents, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 on Tuesday, while South Carolina is 5-2-1 “under” in its last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAVIDSON and UNDER
UNLV (21-10, 12-16 ATS) at Kentucky (20-13, 13-14-1 ATS)
After earning automatic bids to the Big Dance each of the last two years – including advancing to the Sweet 16 in 2007 – UNLV missed out on the big party this season after 4-6 finish to the Mountain West Conference campaign. The Runnin’ Rebels are coming off consecutive lopsided losses to San Diego State – a 57-46 defeat as a four-point road underdog in the regular-season finale and a 71-51 setback as a 3½-point favorite on their home floor in opening-round tournament action Wednesday. UNLV has lost four straight on the road (1-3 ATS).
Kentucky’s 17-year run of making it to the Big Dance ended when it lost five of its last six games both SU and ATS, including Friday’s 67-58 defeat to LSU as a one-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. The Wildcats didn’t have much of a home-court advantage down the stretch, losing two straight and four of six, while going 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a host. However, tonight’s game will be played at Kentucky’s former home gym (Memorial Coliseum) rather than at Rupp Arena.
UNLV has followed up a 7-1 ATS run by failing to cash in six consecutive games, going 0-3 ATS on the highway and 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. On the bright side, the Rebels are on positive ATS runs of 4-1 in non-conference games, 12-5-1 on Tuesday, 8-1 after a double-digit home loss and 5-0 as an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, and going back to 2005, they’re 11-6 ATS in postseason tournament play.
In addition to pointspread slumps of 1-5 overall and 1-6 at home, Kentucky has failed to cover in four straight Tuesday contests and is 1-4 ATS in its last five against winning teams and 3-7 ATS In its last 10 when laying points. However, the Wildcats have cashed in five of their last six outside of the SEC.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for UNLV on the road, 7-2 for UNLV as a road ‘dog, 17-5-1 for UNLV on Tuesday, 5-2 for Kentucky overall, 7-3 for Kentucky at home and 12-5 for Kentucky after a pointspread setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Washington State (17-15, 11-17-1 ATS) at St. Mary’s (26-6, 14-12-1 ATS
Washington State’s two-year Big Dance run ended with Thursday’s 64-53 loss to UCLA as an 8½-point underdog in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles. Prior to that game, the Cougars had won four of five while going 4-0-1 ATS. Still, they’re just 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS in their last 15 games, all in the Pac-10.
St. Mary’s likely was the last team left out of the Field of 65, despite closing the season on a 7-1 SU run. However, the one loss was ugly, an 83-58 setback to rival Gonzaga in the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament in Las Vegas on March 9. Although St. Mary’s followed the Gonzaga loss with Friday’s 85-65 rout of Eastern Washington, it wasn’t enough to earn the Gaels their second straight trip to the Big Dance.
Washington State is on ATS dives of 1-5-1 on the road, 2-5 in non-league action, 5-14-1 as an underdog, 2-10-1 as a road pup and 2-9 ATS as a ‘dog of less than seven points.
St. Mary’s came up just short as a 21½-point favorite in Friday’s 20-point pounding of Eastern Washington, making the Gaels 1-4 ATS in their last five, and including the West Coast Conference tournament, they’re 2-7-1 in their last 10 postseason games. However, St. Mary’s is on positive pointspread runs of 6-2 at home, 6-2-1 in non-conference games, 5-1 versus the Pac-10, 4-0 as a favorite of less than six points and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.
For the Cougars, the under is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 6-2 against West Coast Conference foes, 37-15-1 away from the Pac-10 and 8-3 after a SU defeat. The under is also 4-1 in the Gaels’ last five overall, but the over is 6-1 in their last seven at home and 4-0 in their last four non-conference tilts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. MARY’S
NBA
Orlando (49-17, 42-23-1 ATS) at Cleveland (53-13, 42-24 ATS)
The Magic hit the road for an Eastern Conference battle with the Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena in a matchup of the NBA’s top two teams against the spread.
Orlando ripped Utah 105-87 Sunday as a 5½-point home chalk for its third straight win and cover, and the Magic are now 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in their last eight starts. Orlando has averaged 100.8 ppg and allowed just 89.2 ppg over its last five, including three road contests. Stan Van Gundy’s squad owns the second-best road record in the league at 23-10 SU and 22-10-1 ATS, with the winner going 30-2-1 ATS in those 33 games.
Cleveland topped New York 98-93 Sunday for its fifth consecutive SU win, but the Cavs fell short as a 10-point favorite for their second straight ATS setback, and they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six starts. Cleveland has outscored its foes by six points per game during its current run (105.8-99.8), including sweeping a three-game West Coast swing (1-2 ATS) last week. The Cavs maintain the NBA’s best home record at 29-1 SU and an impressive 23-7 ATS, outscoring visitors by an average of nearly 15 ppg at Quicken Loans Arena (103.3-88.4).
Orlando has had Cleveland’s number lately, winning and cashing in the last three meetings and going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine clashes. In the lone meeting this season, Orlando won 99-88 in January laying five points at home. The Magic have covered on their last four trips to Cleveland (3-1 SU), the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests and the road team is on a 5-2 ATS run.
The Magic have cashed in just one of their last five starts against the Central Division, but they are otherwise on pointspread tears of 36-16 overall, 55-27-3 on the road (5-1 in the last six), 4-0 after a day off, 13-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 21-10 after a spread-cover and 23-11 after a SU win.
The Cavaliers are on a 35-16 ATS run in Cleveland and are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 starts after a non-cover. But they are also on ATS skids of 1-4 after a SU win and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under for Orlando is on rolls of 7-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a day off, and the under for Cleveland is on streaks of 5-0 at home, 6-2 against winning teams, 12-4 in the Eastern Conference and 35-17 playing on one day’s rest. Finally, the total has stayed low in seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Detroit (33-32, 27-38 ATS) at Dallas (40-27, 33-34 ATS)
The Mavericks look to get back on track after dropping consecutive games in California when they return home to American Airlines Center to host the inconsistent Pistons.
Dallas finished a four-game road trip with two straight losses, falling at Golden State 119-110 as a 1½-point favorite and then losing 107-100 at the Lakers on Sunday, though it covered as an 8½-point pup. The two-game hiccup comes on the heels of a 7-2 SU run, and with Sunday’s spread-cover in Los Angeles, the Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts. Dallas is riding a seven-game home winning streak (6-1 ATS) and is 17-2 SU in its last 19 inside American Airlines Center (12-7 ATS).
Detroit tumbled to lowly Memphis 89-84 as an 8½-points home chalk Sunday, and the Pistons have now alternated SU and ATS wins and losses over their last six starts. Detroit’s last five games have all been decided by either four or five points, with the Pistons going 2-3 SU and ATS in those contests.
Dallas has won three of the last four in this series, including a 112-91 rout in Motown as a 3 ½-point road underdog in this year’s first meeting. However, the Pistons are still 4-2 ATS in the last six battles, and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The winner has covered in each of Detroit’s last nine games and 30 of the last 32 overall, including 14 of 15 on the highway. Also, the winner is 23-3 ATS in the Mavericks’ last 26 contests (11-3 ATS at home). Finally, the victor has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings between these squads.
Dallas has reached triple digits in scoring in eight of its last 11 games and 18 of its last 25, but it has allowed more than 100 points in six of its last seven. Meanwhile, since a three-game stretch in which it scored at least 100 points in every contest (all wins), the Pistons have hit triple figures just once in their last five, and that was in overtime. However, they’ve held 13 of their last 15 opponents under the century mark.
The Mavericks are on a 2-8 ATS skid following a spread-cover and are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games against the Central Division, but they are on a host of pointspread hot streaks, including 5-2 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 against the East, 10-4 as a favorite and 7-1 as a home chalk. The Pistons are on ATS upswings of 7-3 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on the road, but they also carry negative pointspread trends of 1-4 against the Southwest Division and 9-20 after a non-cover.
The over for Dallas is on rolls of 5-0 against Central Division foes, 5-0 at home, 13-3 as a favorite and 8-3 after a SU loss. On the flip side, the under for Detroit is on stretches of 4-1 against winning teams, 20-7-1 against the Southwest Division, 17-8 on the road and a lengthy 82-38-2 with the Pistons as an underdog, including 44-20 as a road pup.
Furthermore, the total has stayed below the posted price in four of the last five meetings between these two squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
